Inflācijas un bezdarba matemātiskie modeļi
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Latvijas Universitāte
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Abstract
Maģistra darba temats ir „Inflācijas un bezdarba matemātiskie modeļi”. Šie modeļi tiek aprakstīti ar otrās kārtas diferenču vienādojumu un IGARCH modeļu palīdzību. Tika atrasti modeļi, kas vislabāk apraksta Inflāciju un Bezdarbu. Tika sniegta neliela analīze mēnešu, ceturtkšņu un gadu datiem, aprēķinātas prognozes līdz 2011. gada beigām. Skaitliskie aprēķini veikti ar SPSS un MS Excel palīdzību.
Atslēgas vārdi:
Inflācijas un Bezdarba modelis
Filipa sakarība
ARIMA modeļi
IGARCH modeļi
Diferenču vienādojums
Mazāko kvadrātu metode
Master work theme is “Mathematical models of Inflation and Unemployment”. These Inflation and Unemployment models are described with second order difference equations and IGARCH models. There were found the best descibing model for Inflation and Unemployment. Was given small analysis from obtained monthly and yearly data of Latvian inflation and unemployment, were found forecasts till the end of the year 2011. Calculating was made using SPSS and MS Excel. Keywords: The Model of Inflation and Unemployment The Phillips relation ARIMA models IGARCH models Difference equation Least – squares method
Master work theme is “Mathematical models of Inflation and Unemployment”. These Inflation and Unemployment models are described with second order difference equations and IGARCH models. There were found the best descibing model for Inflation and Unemployment. Was given small analysis from obtained monthly and yearly data of Latvian inflation and unemployment, were found forecasts till the end of the year 2011. Calculating was made using SPSS and MS Excel. Keywords: The Model of Inflation and Unemployment The Phillips relation ARIMA models IGARCH models Difference equation Least – squares method